Zahidul Islam and Md. Khalequzzaman
Although India and Bangladesh share 57 trans-boundary rivers, the
Ganges Treaty signed in 1996 is the only water sharing treaty between
these two neighbouring countries. Proper implementation of the treaty is
important for both Bangladesh and India.
Water-flow and sediments carried by the Ganges River are essential for
economic activities for more than 40 million people living in the
southwestern coastal region in Bangladesh, and for environmental
functioning of the Bengal delta, including the survival of the
Sunderbans – a World Heritage site. The Ganges’s watershed encompasses
Nepal, India and Bangladesh. From an integrated water resources
management perspective, all stakeholders in co-riparian countries need
to make plan for optimal uses of water resources while safeguarding the
environment and ecosystems that the rivers support. However,
watershed-scale planning and management schemes do not exist for any
shared river in South Asia.
II
The Joint River Commission (JRC) is charged with implementation of
the treaty and evaluation of the success and failure of the treaty every
five years. As per the initial agreement, the treaty is subject to
critical review every five years by the JRC based on field observations.
It has been 15 years since two countries signed the treaty, but no
review of the success and failure has been carried out by the JRC. If no
further review is made then the agreement should remain unchanged until
2026. After the expiration of the treaty, its renewal will depend on
mutual agreement between the two countries.
Since its inception during the lean season in 1996-97, the news media
in Bangladesh has been reporting on the success and failure of the
treaty as it pertains to the interest of Bangladesh. As per the print
and electronic news media, Bangladesh did not receive its fair share of
water during 12 of the last 15 years. However, in most cases, the media
reports are not based on the actual data and critical analysis of the
existing condition of the treaty. The proper implementation of the
treaty has a bearing on Bangladesh-India bilateral relationship.
Therefore, it is important that the success and failure of the treaty is
evaluated based on field data.
III)
Before going into the main discussion, let’s have a look at the
existing water-sharing equation of the Ganges Treaty. The agreement
remains active from January 1 to May 31 each year, and water sharing
calculations are based on 10-day average flow. As per the treaty:
- If the flow is greater than 75,000 cusec (cubic feet per second) at Farakka Barrage, then India will receive 40,000 cusec, and the remaining will be allocated for Bangladesh.
- If the flow ranges between 70,000 and 75,000 cusec, the Bangladesh will receive 35,000 cusec and the remaining will be allocated for India
- If the flow is less than 70,000 cusec, the share between Bangladesh and India will be at the rate of 50:50. However, India and Bangladesh each shall receive a guaranteed 35,000 cusecs of water in alternative three 10-day periods during the period March 1 to May 10.
It should be noted that, the water-sharing equation has been
formulated based on the availability of the historic average flow of
10-day period during the past 40 years, spanning from 1949 to 1988 at
Farakka Barrage (Annexure II of the Ganges Treaty).
IV)
We have used the last four years of flow data (2008-11) of Ganges
both at Farakka Barrage in West Bengal and at Hardinge Bridge in
Bangladesh that are available on the official website of JRC (http://www.jrcb.gov.bd/press_release.html).
The Ganges Treaty is operational between January 1 and May 31 each
year, and each lean season is divided into 15 time-intervals with 10-day
in each interval. In analyzing the flow data, we paid particular
attention to the following two points:
a) During how many of the 15 intervals Bangladesh received her fair share of the Ganges water as per the treaty.
b) During how many of the 15 intervals Bangladesh received the
right share of water as per the historical average flow as included in
the treaty.
Bangladesh’s share of the Ganges has been verified at Hardinge
Bridge. Hardinge Bridge is located downstream of the Farakka Barrage,
and there is no distributary channel between Farakka Barrage and
Hardinge Bridge that diverts water from the main stem of the Ganges
River. A tributary named Mahanada channel is located between Farakka
Barrage and Hardinge Bridge that augments the flow of Ganges River,
which means that the amount of water measured at Hardinge Bridge should
be more than the amount released at Farakka Barrage. Also, the amount
of water that India is allowed to withdraw between Farakka Barrage and
India-Bangladesh Border is limited to 200 cusec (Article 3). Consequently, we assumed that the flow of the Ganges River must be greater at Hardinge Bridge
as compared to the amount released at Farakka Barrage. The historical
average flow recoded at Hardinge Bridge also supports this assumption.
V)
The analysis of flow-data revealed that, in 2008, 2009 and 2011
Bangladesh received the right share of the Ganges water during 12 out of
15 intervals. In other words, during those three years, 20% of the
times Bangladesh received less water at Hardinge Bridge than is
prescribed in the treaty. In 2010, the situation was worse, as
Bangladesh received the fair share during 9 out of 15 intervals,
indicating a clear violation of the treaty for 40% of the time. Based
on the analysis of the flow-data, we concluded that, on average, 25% of
the time during the last 4 years, Bangladesh received less water at
Hardinge Bridge than was presumably released at Farakka Barrage to enter
Bangladesh.
While considering the data for historical average flow for the years
2008 and 2009, only during 2 out of 15 intervals the flow at Hardinge
Bridge reached the historical average flow as recorded in the Annexure
II of the treaty. In 2010, during none of the 15 intervals the measured
flow reached the amount that was equal or exceeded the historical
average flow for the respective time intervals; and in 2011, during 5
out of 15 intervals Bangladesh received the right share of water that
was comparable to the historical average flow. The analysis of flow
data revealed that during the years 2008-11, 85% of the times, the flow
at Farakka Barrage was below the respective historic average flow that
was recoded for the period of 1948-88. The analysis of flow-data
indicates that the lean season’s flow during the last four years
(2008-11) has declined substantially declined when compared to the
respective historic average flow at Farakka Barrage, which can be
considered to be a violation of the treaty on the part of India, as the
amount of water allocated in the treaty was based on the historic
average flow during lean seasons.
VI)
The Ganges Treaty can serve as harbinger of water sharing among all
co-riparian countries within the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin.
Proper implementation of the Ganges Treaty is important for bilateral
relationship between India and Bangladesh. The economic wellbeing and
environmental functioning of riverine ecosystems both in Bangladesh and
India depend on proper implementation of the treaty. Currently, the
treaty is not being implemented fully as was originally intended.
Despite of the treaty in action, 25% of the time during the last 4 years
Bangladesh received less water at Hardinge Bridge than was presumably
released at Farakka Barrage to enter Bangladesh.
The basis of the Ganges treaty is the historic average-flow in the
Ganges River at Farakka Barrage. However, since the implementation of
the Ganges Treaty in 1996, the amount of water-flow at Farakka Barrage
hardy ever reached the historic average flow. Part of the reason can be
attributed to upstream diversion of water from various tributaries of
the Ganges River before they reach at Farakka Barrage. It is expected
that India will identify the factors that act as hindrance to proper
implementation of the Ganges Treaty, and will take initiatives to
formulate an integrated water resources management plan that protects
the interests of all stakeholders and the ecosystems that are supported
by all shared rivers in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin.
NB: This Joint Article has been published on Op-Ed of bdnews24.com on June 11, 2012.
HERE is the link.
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